Free NBA Picks & Predictions - Today's Best NBA Bets (2024)

The debate of “Rust vs. Rest” is on full display in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, with the Celtics shelved for 10 days between games. However, Boston is the best first-half bet in basketball, owning a 63-32-1 record against the 1H spread on the season (+25.3 units). During the playoffs, Boston is scoring 59.4 points in the opening 24 minutes while Dallas has been slower out of the blocks, averaging less than 53 1H points in the postseason. The Garden will be rocking for Game 1 and I like the Celtics to cover the -3.5 1H spread – which is already up to -4 at sharper books.

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Jason Logan - Pick Made 5 days, 20 hrs, 7 min ago.

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Gafford has unlocked attacks on the rim further than anyone running partner in Luka Doncic’s NBA career. It is effective enough, Boston has not seen anything like it this postseason. Gafford scored at least 10 points in four of the five games against the Timberwolves, who have better interior defense than the Celtics do, and he has topped this points prop in nine of 11 games in the last two rounds. Kristaps Porzingis may be healthy, but Doncic will draw him into pick-and-roll coverages plenty, leaving Gafford available for lobs or offensive rebounds. This points prop should be at least a bucket higher.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 3 days, 15 hrs, 1 min ago.

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Dallas’s defense has obvious matchups for Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis. But to slow Derrick White, the Mavs will have to rely on Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving, not exactly defensive aces. White’s usage rate has climbed this postseason, up to 20.3% since Porzingis’s injury. That usage has shown most from deep, taking 2.2 more 3s per game than he did in the regular season. Hitting more than 40% of those looks, White should take advantage of his offensive-minded defenders.

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Douglas Farmer - Pick Made 2 days, 14 hrs, 17 min ago.

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Luka Doncic's assists prop is a bet I'll be looking to target throughout the NBA Finals because of how the Boston Celtics have guarded him in the past and their defensive principles in general. The Celtics blitz at one of the lowest rates in the NBA, which will keep the ball in Doncic's hands and allow him to get into the lane and generate shots for his teammates. Doncic has also shown he is capable of getting to his spots by using his size, strength, and basketball IQ against Jrue Holiday, which will allow him to create offense for his teammates. The total of 8.5 for Doncic's assists prop is more representative of how the Minnesota Timberwolves guarded Doncic than how the Celtics will. Doncic is projected to have 9.6 assists in Game 1, which allows us to price the Over 8.5 assists at -160.

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Jon Metler - Pick Made 19 hrs, 48 min ago.

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All the attention is on the injury to Kristaps Porzingis, but the extended time off also gives Dallas Mavericks forward Maxi Kleber more time to work on his injured shoulder and, more importantly, his three-point shooting stroke. Kleber returned from injury in the Western Conference Finals against the Timberwolves but looked hesitant to shoot the ball because of his shoulder injury. With his points total now trading at 2.5 (-115) for the Over, I think we need to attack this number. It's very possible that Kleber could see more minutes than expected, playing alongside Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively, as a primary defender on Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown. Kleber's threes made prop is also trading at -115 for the Over 0.5 makes, but why would you bet that when one three-pointer will win you this bet and you have more ways to win?

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Jon Metler - Pick Made 19 hrs, 42 min ago.

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